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Prediction Markets Calibration Reference Data Feature

2026

Prediction Markets Definition of Terms: Meaning and Prediction-Market Examples Learn what a definition of terms means, how conceptual and operational definitions differ, and how to define prices, outcomes and calibration. Prediction Markets On the Nose: Meaning in Betting and Forecasting “On the nose” means exact, or a win-only horse-racing bet. Learn why a winning prediction does not prove market probabilities were well calibrated. Prediction Markets CFTC Prediction Markets: What Regulation Does—and Doesn’t—Mean What CFTC oversight means for prediction markets, how contract listings work, and why regulation does not establish that market odds are accurate. Prediction Markets Automated Market Makers in Prediction Markets An automated market maker prices trades by formula. Learn how liquidity changes YES/NO odds, execution costs, and what those prices can tell forecasters. Prediction Markets Polymarket Fees: Rates, Formulas and All-In Cost Polymarket’s current taker fees by category, the separate US schedule, and a worked example showing how fees change break-even probability. Prediction Markets Kalshi Fees: Formulas, Maker Charges and Rounding Kalshi’s event-contract fee formulas, maker exceptions, rounding and transfer charges—with a worked example of the fee-adjusted break-even probability. Calibration Mean Absolute Percentage Error: Why It Fails for YES/NO Odds Learn the MAPE formula with a worked example, why zero outcomes break it for prediction markets, and when Brier scores and calibration are better. Prediction Markets How Small Bets Can Move Election Market Odds What ACDC’s 94% finding measures, how thin order books move election odds, and why price persistence is not proof of manipulation or miscalibration. Prediction Markets Which States Ban Kalshi or Polymarket? Compare Kalshi restrictions in Nevada, Michigan and Washington, Polymarket US enforcement, and the difference between an injunction and a lawsuit. Prediction Markets Polymarket US Fee Schedule: September 2026 Changes The September 2026 Polymarket US fee formulas, effective dates, maker rebates and taker tiers—and what a 50-cent contract costs after fees. Prediction Markets Polymarket Earnings Accuracy vs. Analysts: What 78.5% Means Unpack the reported 78.5% versus 43.7% earnings result, the 75.9% beat-rate baseline, and what the comparison does—and does not—prove. Prediction Markets Polymarket Skilled Traders: Does Accuracy Persist? Research identifies persistent trading skill in about 3% of sampled Polymarket accounts. Learn what the evidence says about profits, forecasts and calibration. Prediction Markets Pew Prediction-Market Volume: What “Notional” Means Pew counts each traded contract at $1, not its execution price. What the $53 billion figure measures—and what it cannot tell you about forecasts. Prediction Markets Mention Market Odds Manipulation Risk: What Prices Miss Assess mention-market odds by separating price distortion, outcome influence and advance knowledge, with the CFTC’s guidance and enforcement findings. Prediction Markets Pew’s Polymarket User Sample: What the Bias Means Pew’s 2026 Polymarket study tracks selected active wallets, not all users. Here’s how event selection, multiple wallets and API limits affect the findings. Prediction Markets Kalshi Margin Trading Explained: The Event-Contract Proposal See how Kalshi’s proposed event-contract margin would affect collateral, eligibility and margin calls—and why lower deposits do not limit trading losses. Prediction Markets Kalshi Midterms Hub: How to Read Joint Control Odds Find Kalshi’s midterms joint control markets, read the four Congress outcomes, and learn why multiplying House and Senate odds can mislead. Prediction Markets Kalshi Government Shutdown Odds Crashed: What the Record Shows Kalshi’s October 1 shutdown contract resolved No. Official price history supports low odds, but not the reported 37%-to-4% overnight timeline. Prediction Markets Do Kalshi Liquidity Rewards Distort the Odds? Kalshi rewards resting orders, which can change quoting incentives. Learn what the rules establish and what evidence would show less accurate market odds. Prediction Markets Kalshi Election Order Book Depth: Reading Beyond the Odds Read Kalshi election odds alongside spreads and available size. What DoubleZero’s depth feed adds—and why liquidity is not forecast accuracy. Calibration Kalshi Fed Rate Hike Odds Accuracy: What the Evidence Shows Compare Kalshi’s reported Fed hike probabilities with CME and Polymarket, see their Brier scores, and learn what published research actually establishes. Prediction Markets Kalshi Historical Order Book Data via BMLL: What We Know BMLL now carries normalized Kalshi historical order book data. See what is confirmed, what remains unspecified and how it differs from Kalshi’s API. Reference Data Kalshi Combos: What Missing Category Data Means Kalshi combo volume did not vanish after July 2026. Learn which aggregate data remain usable, where topic comparisons break, and how to rebuild them. Prediction Markets BMLL Kalshi vs. CME Data: What Is Comparable? BMLL normalizes Kalshi and CME event-contract data into one schema. See what that enables—and what researchers must still align themselves. Prediction Markets Kalshi Biotech Trial Odds vs. FDA Approval Odds See why Kalshi clinical-trial prices can exceed FDA approval odds, and compare contract events, deadlines, bid-ask spreads and calibration limits. Calibration Is Kalshi’s Favorite-Longshot Bias Reversed? Broad data through April 2025 shows conventional longshot underperformance; weather tails are preliminary, and sports “reversal” means returns turned negative. Prediction Markets Polymarket Leaderboards: How Rankings Work Find the official board and API, then see why monthly PnL can include unresolved positions, all-time PnL is realized-only, and volume means shares. Prediction Markets Kalshi World Cup Ad Market Odds: Not Proven Wrong Favorites won 12 of 17 reported advertiser contracts. Five losses alone cannot show miscalibration; that requires timestamped prices and the original ad. Prediction Markets Prediction Market Fees Versus Quoted Price: All-In Cost Start with executed prices, add trading fees and external charges, and keep spread, depth and slippage in the fill to avoid double-counting. Prediction Markets Market Brier Score by Platform and Category, 2024–2026 Weekly Brier scores for Kalshi and Manifold resolved markets, split by category where available, showing forecast error shrink as markets pool into one cell. Prediction Markets Market Calibration by Platform and Price Bucket, 2024–2026 Do Kalshi and Manifold prices predict outcomes at the rate they imply? Closing prices, bucketed in 5-point steps, versus how often each bucket resolved YES. Prediction Markets Kalshi Calibration by Category and Price Bucket, 2024–2026 Kalshi's own categories, cross-cut by 5-point closing price, showing where prices run over- or under-confident against how often each bucket resolved YES. Prediction Markets Kalshi Settled Markets by Category and Date, 2024–2026 Every Kalshi category's day-by-day settled market count, volume, and YES rate, showing how one high-frequency product dominates the platform's recent count. Prediction Markets Resolved Prediction Markets by Platform and Month, 2020–2026 Monthly resolved-market counts for Polymarket, Kalshi and Manifold in each platform's fetched sample — a map of how deep each pull reached, not a true trend. Feature Prediction Market Closed vs. Settled: Key Difference Trading ends at closure; settlement follows only after the outcome is applied and eligible positions are credited, sometimes after review or disputes. Feature Prediction Market Backtest Timestamp Errors Use strict-prior inputs when equal-time order is unknown; audit candle labels, backward joins, execution timing, settlement leakage, and fills. Feature Kalshi Bitcoin vs. Exchange Price Chart Align exchange BTC/USD, live BRTI, and Kalshi bids and asks by timestamp, then plot dollar values and event probability on separate axes. Feature Brier Score vs Calibration in Prediction Markets One summarizes squared error; the other tests whether probabilities match observed frequencies—and fair evaluation needs comparable contracts and snapshots. Feature How Prediction Market Prices Become Probabilities A 63-cent YES share is the market saying 63% — here's the mechanism that makes prices probabilities, the frictions that bend it, and how well it calibrates.