Selected I
Yes No Odds · 01
Price Mechanics
Why a 63-cent YES share is a 63% forecast — and when it isn't quite.
→Prediction market prices, read as probabilities — calibration, data, and records.
Markets that price the future, measured
How prediction market prices become probabilities, how well they calibrate, and the record — measured, not marketed.
Calibration over conviction
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The measurements
Selected II
Yes No Odds · 02
Calibration
The track record: how often 70% events actually happen.
Selected III
Yes No Odds · 03
Market Records
Volumes, famous markets, and the resolutions that got argued.
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