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Kalshi Calibration by Category and Price Bucket, 2024–2026
Kalshi's own categories, cross-cut by 5-point closing price, showing where prices run over- or under-confident against how often each bucket resolved YES.
This table takes the same 42,675 priced, resolved Kalshi markets behind the platform-level calibration page and cuts them by Kalshi’s own category instead of by year, crossed with the same 5-point price bucket. Each row’s gap is the average closing price minus the observed YES rate for that category-bucket cell; the chart aggregates each category’s cells into one weighted average gap, restricted to the 7 categories with at least 50 markets so a single thin cell can’t swing the picture.
Sort any column or search the table; download the CSV below the table.
Sample Size Drives the Category-Level Spread
Weighted by market count, Climate and Weather shows the tightest calibration of the well-covered categories at 1.35 points average absolute gap, while Financials is the noisiest at 5.16 points — a category-level version of the sample-size effect seen on the Brier score page: categories with fewer markets per bucket swing further from the diagonal.
By sign, Politics runs the most overconfident overall, with prices averaging 8.46 points above the observed YES rate; Elections runs the most underconfident, at -9.48 points. 6 categories (AI, Economics, Elections, Entertainment, Politics, Science and Technology) have fewer than 50 markets total and are excluded from the chart — their rows are still in the table below, but a category with 1-2 markets shouldn't be read as a calibration curve.
Average Calibration Gap by Kalshi Category, 2024-2026
Weighted average of (price − observed YES rate) across each category's buckets; positive bars ran overconfident, negative ran underconfident. Limited to the 7 categories with at least 50 priced markets.
Full Category x Price Bucket Table
| Category▼ | Price Bucket (%)▼ | Markets▼ | Mean Price (%)▼ | Observed YES Rate (%)▼ | Gap (points)▼ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AI | 95-100 | 2 | 98.00 | 100.00 | -2.00 |
| Climate and Weather | 0-5 | 1,347 | 1.10 | 0.00 | 1.10 |
| Climate and Weather | 5-10 | 28 | 6.43 | 3.57 | 2.86 |
| Climate and Weather | 10-15 | 7 | 11.14 | 0.00 | 11.14 |
| Climate and Weather | 15-20 | 3 | 17.67 | 0.00 | 17.67 |
| Climate and Weather | 20-25 | 2 | 22.00 | 0.00 | 22.00 |
| Climate and Weather | 70-75 | 1 | 70.00 | 100.00 | -30.00 |
| Climate and Weather | 80-85 | 1 | 83.00 | 0.00 | 83.00 |
| Climate and Weather | 85-90 | 1 | 86.00 | 100.00 | -14.00 |
| Climate and Weather | 90-95 | 8 | 92.13 | 100.00 | -7.87 |
| Climate and Weather | 95-100 | 279 | 98.78 | 100.00 | -1.22 |
| Commodities | 0-5 | 1,977 | 0.94 | 0.10 | 0.84 |
| Commodities | 5-10 | 168 | 6.81 | 0.60 | 6.21 |
| Commodities | 10-15 | 53 | 11.77 | 0.00 | 11.77 |
| Commodities | 15-20 | 37 | 16.81 | 0.00 | 16.81 |
| Commodities | 20-25 | 37 | 21.70 | 2.70 | 19.00 |
| Commodities | 25-30 | 28 | 26.82 | 0.00 | 26.82 |
| Commodities | 30-35 | 36 | 32.36 | 2.78 | 29.58 |
| Commodities | 35-40 | 24 | 37.25 | 8.33 | 28.92 |
| Commodities | 40-45 | 19 | 42.47 | 5.26 | 37.21 |
| Commodities | 45-50 | 10 | 46.90 | 10.00 | 36.90 |
| Commodities | 50-55 | 10 | 52.20 | 20.00 | 32.20 |
| Commodities | 55-60 | 4 | 58.00 | 0.00 | 58.00 |
| Commodities | 60-65 | 7 | 62.00 | 14.29 | 47.71 |
| Commodities | 65-70 | 8 | 66.38 | 50.00 | 16.38 |
| Commodities | 70-75 | 8 | 72.25 | 75.00 | -2.75 |
| Commodities | 75-80 | 6 | 76.50 | 100.00 | -23.50 |
| Commodities | 80-85 | 13 | 81.62 | 76.92 | 4.70 |
| Commodities | 85-90 | 19 | 87.21 | 94.74 | -7.53 |
| Commodities | 90-95 | 40 | 92.17 | 97.50 | -5.33 |
| Commodities | 95-100 | 3,867 | 99.05 | 99.95 | -0.90 |
| Crypto | 0-5 | 191 | 1.61 | 0.00 | 1.61 |
| Crypto | 5-10 | 16 | 6.19 | 0.00 | 6.19 |
| Crypto | 10-15 | 10 | 11.50 | 0.00 | 11.50 |
| Crypto | 15-20 | 3 | 15.33 | 0.00 | 15.33 |
| Crypto | 20-25 | 1 | 21.00 | 0.00 | 21.00 |
| Crypto | 25-30 | 3 | 27.00 | 0.00 | 27.00 |
| Crypto | 30-35 | 2 | 31.00 | 50.00 | -19.00 |
| Crypto | 45-50 | 3 | 47.33 | 33.33 | 14.00 |
| Crypto | 65-70 | 1 | 65.00 | 100.00 | -35.00 |
| Crypto | 80-85 | 1 | 80.00 | 100.00 | -20.00 |
| Crypto | 85-90 | 5 | 89.00 | 100.00 | -11.00 |
| Crypto | 90-95 | 6 | 92.83 | 100.00 | -7.17 |
| Crypto | 95-100 | 111 | 98.41 | 99.10 | -0.69 |
| Economics | 0-5 | 1 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| Economics | 5-10 | 3 | 7.33 | 0.00 | 7.33 |
| Economics | 15-20 | 2 | 16.50 | 0.00 | 16.50 |
| Economics | 20-25 | 1 | 22.00 | 100.00 | -78.00 |
| Economics | 30-35 | 1 | 30.00 | 0.00 | 30.00 |
| Economics | 40-45 | 2 | 42.50 | 50.00 | -7.50 |
| Economics | 80-85 | 2 | 83.00 | 100.00 | -17.00 |
| Economics | 90-95 | 1 | 91.00 | 100.00 | -9.00 |
| Economics | 95-100 | 2 | 97.00 | 100.00 | -3.00 |
| Elections | 0-5 | 1 | 0.20 | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| Elections | 65-70 | 1 | 68.00 | 100.00 | -32.00 |
| Elections | 85-90 | 1 | 85.00 | 100.00 | -15.00 |
| Elections | 90-95 | 1 | 94.00 | 100.00 | -6.00 |
| Elections | 95-100 | 2 | 97.95 | 100.00 | -2.05 |
| Entertainment | 95-100 | 3 | 99.00 | 100.00 | -1.00 |
| Exotics | 0-5 | 18,777 | 1.44 | 0.13 | 1.31 |
| Exotics | 5-10 | 4,032 | 7.15 | 0.89 | 6.26 |
| Exotics | 10-15 | 1,950 | 12.20 | 2.46 | 9.74 |
| Exotics | 15-20 | 1,336 | 17.28 | 4.42 | 12.86 |
| Exotics | 20-25 | 810 | 22.27 | 6.91 | 15.36 |
| Exotics | 25-30 | 618 | 27.45 | 9.71 | 17.74 |
| Exotics | 30-35 | 435 | 32.21 | 13.10 | 19.11 |
| Exotics | 35-40 | 357 | 37.31 | 16.53 | 20.78 |
| Exotics | 40-45 | 294 | 42.31 | 19.05 | 23.26 |
| Exotics | 45-50 | 263 | 47.28 | 28.52 | 18.76 |
| Exotics | 50-55 | 188 | 52.51 | 36.17 | 16.34 |
| Exotics | 55-60 | 167 | 57.44 | 50.90 | 6.54 |
| Exotics | 60-65 | 142 | 62.35 | 55.63 | 6.72 |
| Exotics | 65-70 | 120 | 67.47 | 65.83 | 1.64 |
| Exotics | 70-75 | 105 | 72.39 | 71.43 | 0.96 |
| Exotics | 75-80 | 101 | 77.39 | 77.23 | 0.16 |
| Exotics | 80-85 | 103 | 82.41 | 82.52 | -0.11 |
| Exotics | 85-90 | 101 | 87.59 | 90.10 | -2.51 |
| Exotics | 90-95 | 103 | 92.42 | 90.29 | 2.13 |
| Exotics | 95-100 | 279 | 98.52 | 98.57 | -0.05 |
| Financials | 0-5 | 92 | 1.59 | 2.17 | -0.58 |
| Financials | 5-10 | 21 | 7.24 | 4.76 | 2.48 |
| Financials | 10-15 | 9 | 12.11 | 0.00 | 12.11 |
| Financials | 15-20 | 18 | 17.56 | 5.56 | 12.00 |
| Financials | 20-25 | 9 | 22.00 | 11.11 | 10.89 |
| Financials | 25-30 | 10 | 26.20 | 20.00 | 6.20 |
| Financials | 30-35 | 4 | 31.25 | 25.00 | 6.25 |
| Financials | 35-40 | 1 | 35.00 | 100.00 | -65.00 |
| Financials | 40-45 | 10 | 42.40 | 20.00 | 22.40 |
| Financials | 45-50 | 3 | 45.67 | 66.67 | -21.00 |
| Financials | 50-55 | 6 | 51.67 | 66.67 | -15.00 |
| Financials | 55-60 | 3 | 56.00 | 33.33 | 22.67 |
| Financials | 60-65 | 3 | 60.33 | 100.00 | -39.67 |
| Financials | 65-70 | 4 | 66.75 | 50.00 | 16.75 |
| Financials | 70-75 | 6 | 70.83 | 66.67 | 4.16 |
| Financials | 75-80 | 3 | 75.67 | 100.00 | -24.33 |
| Financials | 80-85 | 6 | 83.17 | 100.00 | -16.83 |
| Financials | 85-90 | 8 | 86.62 | 87.50 | -0.88 |
| Financials | 90-95 | 13 | 91.92 | 100.00 | -8.08 |
| Financials | 95-100 | 96 | 98.49 | 97.92 | 0.57 |
| Mentions | 0-5 | 309 | 1.10 | 0.00 | 1.10 |
| Mentions | 5-10 | 10 | 6.10 | 10.00 | -3.90 |
| Mentions | 10-15 | 6 | 10.67 | 0.00 | 10.67 |
| Mentions | 15-20 | 6 | 16.83 | 0.00 | 16.83 |
| Mentions | 20-25 | 2 | 22.00 | 0.00 | 22.00 |
| Mentions | 25-30 | 4 | 26.75 | 0.00 | 26.75 |
| Mentions | 30-35 | 4 | 31.25 | 0.00 | 31.25 |
| Mentions | 35-40 | 1 | 36.00 | 0.00 | 36.00 |
| Mentions | 40-45 | 2 | 41.50 | 0.00 | 41.50 |
| Mentions | 55-60 | 2 | 57.50 | 50.00 | 7.50 |
| Mentions | 65-70 | 1 | 68.00 | 100.00 | -32.00 |
| Mentions | 80-85 | 1 | 84.00 | 100.00 | -16.00 |
| Mentions | 85-90 | 1 | 88.00 | 100.00 | -12.00 |
| Mentions | 90-95 | 8 | 92.13 | 100.00 | -7.87 |
| Mentions | 95-100 | 287 | 98.93 | 100.00 | -1.07 |
| Politics | 0-5 | 23 | 1.78 | 0.00 | 1.78 |
| Politics | 5-10 | 7 | 6.57 | 0.00 | 6.57 |
| Politics | 10-15 | 3 | 10.00 | 0.00 | 10.00 |
| Politics | 15-20 | 2 | 16.50 | 0.00 | 16.50 |
| Politics | 30-35 | 1 | 31.00 | 0.00 | 31.00 |
| Politics | 70-75 | 1 | 73.00 | 0.00 | 73.00 |
| Politics | 85-90 | 1 | 87.00 | 100.00 | -13.00 |
| Politics | 90-95 | 2 | 93.50 | 50.00 | 43.50 |
| Politics | 95-100 | 8 | 97.28 | 87.50 | 9.78 |
| Science and Technology | 0-5 | 11 | 1.18 | 0.00 | 1.18 |
| Science and Technology | 5-10 | 1 | 5.00 | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| Science and Technology | 15-20 | 1 | 15.00 | 0.00 | 15.00 |
| Science and Technology | 65-70 | 1 | 69.00 | 100.00 | -31.00 |
| Science and Technology | 90-95 | 2 | 94.00 | 100.00 | -6.00 |
| Science and Technology | 95-100 | 9 | 99.00 | 100.00 | -1.00 |
| Sports | 0-5 | 1,978 | 1.06 | 0.00 | 1.06 |
| Sports | 5-10 | 30 | 6.83 | 0.00 | 6.83 |
| Sports | 10-15 | 15 | 12.47 | 0.00 | 12.47 |
| Sports | 15-20 | 11 | 16.73 | 0.00 | 16.73 |
| Sports | 20-25 | 4 | 21.75 | 0.00 | 21.75 |
| Sports | 25-30 | 7 | 26.14 | 0.00 | 26.14 |
| Sports | 30-35 | 3 | 30.67 | 0.00 | 30.67 |
| Sports | 35-40 | 2 | 36.00 | 0.00 | 36.00 |
| Sports | 40-45 | 3 | 42.67 | 0.00 | 42.67 |
| Sports | 45-50 | 2 | 45.00 | 0.00 | 45.00 |
| Sports | 50-55 | 1 | 54.00 | 0.00 | 54.00 |
| Sports | 55-60 | 1 | 56.00 | 0.00 | 56.00 |
| Sports | 60-65 | 2 | 64.00 | 0.00 | 64.00 |
| Sports | 65-70 | 1 | 66.00 | 100.00 | -34.00 |
| Sports | 75-80 | 4 | 78.25 | 0.00 | 78.25 |
| Sports | 80-85 | 1 | 81.00 | 0.00 | 81.00 |
| Sports | 85-90 | 2 | 87.00 | 50.00 | 37.00 |
| Sports | 90-95 | 2 | 90.00 | 100.00 | -10.00 |
| Sports | 95-100 | 856 | 98.98 | 100.00 | -1.02 |
gap_pct = mean_price_pct − observed_yes_rate_pct; positive = overconfident, negative = underconfident.
Download the full table (CSV) · 148 rows
How the Numbers Were Made
Category comes from Kalshi's own /series listing (ticker-prefix match), the same mapping used on the platform calibration and Brier score pages — not a derived or guessed category.
Same filters as the platform-level calibration page: last traded price before settlement, volume>0, and a definite YES/NO result. This is Kalshi only; no Manifold or Polymarket rows are mixed in.
"Exotics" is Kalshi's own category for its high-frequency KXMVECROSSCATEGORY product and is one of the largest categories by market count here — its numbers describe that one product family, not a general notion of exotic markets.
13 categories had at least one priced market from the 407-series sample; 6 sampled categories (World, Health, Social, Transportation, Education, Business) had no volume>0 settled markets and don't appear at all. Coverage is effectively 2026 — see the platform calibration page for why 2021-2025 mostly drop out of Kalshi's public settled-markets index.
Sources
- Kalshi public API (/markets, /series)primaryKalshi · primary · retrieved 2026-09-13 · Public API, no key required. Terms at https://kalshi.com/terms-of-use
- Kalshi public API (/series, category listing)primaryKalshi · primary · retrieved 2026-09-13 · Public API, no key required. Terms at https://kalshi.com/terms-of-use